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To compare the prediction effect of SARIMA and its combined models on the incidence of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD), and to explore the influence of COVID-19 on the SARIMA model.
The incidence trend of HFMD in Shenzhen was analyzed through the time series decomposition method. A SARIMA model was established based on the monthly incidence of HFMD from 2011 to 2023. The optimal model was selected by comparing the performance of MAE, MSE, RMSE, and MAPE, and was used to construct a combined model with the SVR model and the XGBoost model. The incidence from January to July 2024 was predicted using the optimal model.
The incidence trend of HFMD in Shenzhen from 2011 to 2023 was seasonal, and the peak was from May to June and September to October each year. The SARIMA model that did not include incidence data during the COVID-19 pandemic outperformed the included model. Based on MAE, MSE and RMSE indicators, the combined model performed better than the single SARIMA model when the prediction time exceeded 4 months. The SARMI-SVR model wassuperior to the SARMI-XGBoost model in overall performance, especially in the performance of MAPE.
Including the incidence data during the COVID-19 epidemic will degrade the performance of the SARIMA model. The prediction effect of SARMI-SVR model is better than SARIMA model and SARMI-XGboost model, which can be used to predict the incidence of HFMD and provide a reference for disease surveillance and early warning.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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