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To assess Hantaan virus infection risk across districts in Sichuan Province, providing a scientific basis for prevention and intervention measures for Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS) and data for evaluating their effectiveness.
This study utilized open-source databases and mathematical modeling. HFRS case report data were collected to analyze epidemic status and spatial distribution using traditional epidemiological methods, while a Bayesian spatiotemporal model examined temporal effects, spatial effects, spatiotemporal interactions, and the impact of meteorological, socioeconomic, and healthcare factors on regional risk levels.
From 2015 to 2021, HFRS incidence in Sichuan showed temporal variation and seasonality, with Yanyuan County reporting the highest cases. Spatial analysis indicated that most districts had risk values consistent with the provincial average, with high-risk areas in the southern, northeastern and central regions. Relative risk declined overall from 2015 to 2020, with a 41.7% decrease in 2020 compared to 2015, although a slight increase occurred in 2021 (0.22 per 100 000). Yanyuan County had the highest relative risk (2.66 [1.64, 4.57]), while other regions aligned with the provincial average. Urbanization rate and humidity affected HFRS incidence negatively, and precipitation affected HFRS incidence positively.
HFRS incidence in Sichuan Province is generally low, with higher rates in specific districts, highlighting spatial risk variability. Meteorological, socioeconomic, and healthcare factors influence infection risk. Monitoring relevant indicators and implementing timely interventions are essential to prevent increased human infection risk.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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