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To evaluate the epidemic intensity of scarlet fever in Xinjiang using the Moving Epidemic Method (MEM), and to provide evidences for the classification of early warning of scarlet fever.
Monitoring data on scarlet fever in Xinjiang from 2014 to 2023 were collected, with the weekly incidence rate serving as the research object. The δ value corresponding to the maximum Youden index was selected to establish the MEM model. The epidemic thresholds for the two epidemic seasons of scarlet fever were estimated separately. The effectiveness of the MEM was evaluated through a cross-validation procedure. The epidemic level of scarlet fever in Xinjiang from 2014 to 2023 was assessed, and predictions were made for the spring epidemic season in 2024.
The optimal δ value for the spring epidemic peak of scarlet fever in Xinjiang was 2.5. The sensitivity of the model fitting was 0.83, the specificity was 0.91, and the Youden index was 0.74. For the autumn epidemic peak model, the optimal δ value was 2.6, with a sensitivity of 0.90, a specificity of 0.93, and a Youden index of 0.83. In the spring of 2024, the epidemic season entered the low-epidemic level in the 13th week and rose to the medium-epidemic level in the 23rd week, after which it maintained the low-epidemic level. By the 28th week, the epidemic level had fallen below the epidemic threshold, and there were no high or very high epidemic levels observed.
For the bimodal epidemic characteristics of scarlet fever in Xinjiang, the MEM model can be used to determine the epidemic intensity thresholds of different epidemic seasons by splitting the epidemic season, which is proved to be feasible. The model can be used to establish a scarlet fever early warning system, which provides a scientific basis for guiding the classification and early warning of scarlet fever.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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