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Objective Based on the Python platform, the entire process of vector-borne infectious disease mathematical models is expanded to better fit models and evaluate intervention effects, to provide new ideas for grassroots prevention and control, and to open up new perspectives. Methods The SmEmIm-SpEpIpApRp model was fitted using the lmfit library, solved with the solve_ivp function, and sensitivity analysis of key model parameters was performed. The Rt calculation was based on the next generation matrix method, and all results were visually displayed with the help of Matplotlib. Results The results showed that R2=0.98 and RMSE=2.07. Rt was 5.607 in the early stage of the epidemic, and Rtpeak was 8.439 on day 41. The period with Rt>1 lasted 81 days, and q had the highest sensitivity (S=35.435). Under a single intervention, when βmp and βpm<0.01, Rt<1 and the epidemic disappeared. Controlling only γ and q would not eliminate the epidemic. Under comprehensive intervention, Scenario 1 could reduce the cumulative cases by 98.64%, and Rtpeak=0.868. Scenario 2 could reduce the cumulative cases by 87.95%,and Rtpeak=1.988. For Scenario 3, Rtpeak=4.78. Although the increase in Rt was smaller and the change rate was low, the longer duration could increase cumulative cases by 161.47%. Scenario 4 could reduce the cumulative cases by 99.38%, and Rtpeak=0.28. Conclusions The high goodness of fit of the model based on the Python platform verifies the necessity of seasonal dynamic modeling, provides an integrated solution for the prevention and control of vector-borne infectious diseases, expands the practical boundaries of theoretical models, and opens a new perspective for precise prevention and control at the grassroots level.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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