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Comparative analysis of multimorbidity progression trajectories between middle-aged and elderly agricultural and non-agricultural workers
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Ming-yue LIU1, 2, Xin-yang CHEN1, 2, Xue MA1, 2, Meng ZHANG1, 2, Xiang-hui XU3, Bo-wen GENG1, Rui-xi ZHANG1, Xiao-ming LI1, 2
Modern Preventive Medicine | 2025, 52(19) : 3559 - 3567
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Modern Preventive Medicine | 2025, 52(19): 3559-3567
Primary Health Services
Comparative analysis of multimorbidity progression trajectories between middle-aged and elderly agricultural and non-agricultural workers
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Ming-yue LIU1, 2, Xin-yang CHEN1, 2, Xue MA1, 2, Meng ZHANG1, 2, Xiang-hui XU3, Bo-wen GENG1, Rui-xi ZHANG1, Xiao-ming LI1, 2
Affiliations
  • School of Public Health, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan, Hebei 063210, China
Published: 2025-10-10 doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202505446
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Objective To analyze the differences in chronic disease multimorbidity trajectories and influencing factors between middle-aged and elderly agricultural and non-agricultural production operators. Methods Data from five waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) from 2011 to 2020 were used. Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) was applied to fit multimorbidity trajectories for both groups, and multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify factors influencing the trajectory groups. Results A total of 9 937 participants were included, with 5 010 in the agricultural group and 4 927 in the non-agricultural group. In the agricultural group, the multimorbidity trajectories were classified into three patterns: no-multimorbidity (19.22%, 963 cases), new-onset multimorbidity (56.45%,2 828 cases), and progressive multimorbidity (24.33%, 1 219 cases). In the non-agricultural group, four patterns were identified: no-multimorbidity (18.06%, 890 cases), new-onset multimorbidity (41.10%, 2 025 cases), progressive multimorbidity (33.65%, 1 658 cases), and high-growth multimorbidity (7.18%, 354 cases). Increasing age, obesity, sleep duration ≤6 hours, and poor psychological status significantly increased the risk of multimorbidity in both groups (P<0.05). Among agricultural group, overweight (OR=1.37, 95% CI: 1.14-1.65; OR=2.49, 95% CI: 2.01-3.08) and obesity(OR=2.21, 95%CI: 1.59-3.06; OR=5.58, 95% CI: 3.93-7.92) significantly increased the risks of multimorbidity. In the non-agricultural group, higher education levels reduced the risk of new-onset multimorbidity(OR=0.75, 95% CI: 0.60-0.95), and moderate physical activity decreased the risk of high-growth multimorbidity(OR=0.68, 95% CI: 0.52-0.90). Smoking cessation was significantly associated with increased risks of multimorbidity (OR=1.55, 95% CI: 1.04-2.32; OR=2.37, 95% CI: 1.57-3.57; OR=4.02, 95%CI: 2.31-7.00). Conclusion In agricultural populations, the new-onset multimorbidity type is dominant, driven by obesity and insufficient sleep. In non-agricultural populations, the high-growth multimorbidity type is associated with poor psychological status and health deterioration after smoking cessation. It is necessary to strengthen weight and sleep management for agricultural populations and focus on mental health as well as post-cessation monitoring for non-agricultural populations to reduce the risk of multimorbidity.

Agricultural production operators  /  Non-agricultural production operators  /  Multimorbidity  /  Group-based trajectory modeling
Ming-yue LIU, Xin-yang CHEN, Xue MA, Meng ZHANG, Xiang-hui XU, Bo-wen GENG, Rui-xi ZHANG, Xiao-ming LI. Comparative analysis of multimorbidity progression trajectories between middle-aged and elderly agricultural and non-agricultural workers[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2025 , 52 (19) : 3559 -3567 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202505446
Year 2025 volume 52 Issue 19
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doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202505446
  • Receive Date:2025-05-26
  • Online Date:2026-03-17
  • Published:2025-10-10
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  • Received:2025-05-26
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    School of Public Health, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan, Hebei 063210, China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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