Objective To describe the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus attributable to low physical activity in China from 1990 to 2021 and to predict its trend between 2022 and 2035, and to provide a basis for the formulation of related prevention and control policies. Methods According to the relevant data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, the burden of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and mortality for type 2 diabetes mellitus attributable to low physical activity were comparatively analyzed in China and globally using the Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC). Changes in DALYs and mortality burden in China were analyzed using decomposition analysis, and trends were predicted by a Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Results Compared with 1990, DALYs, mortality, age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR), and age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR) for type 2 diabetes mellitus attributable to low physical activity increased in China in 2021, and the burden was lower than the global level. The EAPC values for ASDR and ASMR in China were 0.63% and 0.02%, respectively, indicating stable trends. Older adults and females experienced a more severe burden. Aging and population growth were significant driving factors for changes in the burden of DALYs and mortality in China. It was predicted that from 2022 to 2035,ASDR for males and females in China would show an upward trend, with ASMR exhibiting a downward trend. Conclusion To reduce the burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to low physical activity, more proactive and comprehensive interventions should be developed to increase the level of physical activity in the entire population, especially for older adults and females.