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To analyze the trends of maternal, infant and neonatal mortality rates in Jiangxi Province from 2003 to 2020 in the aggregate and in urban and rural areas, and to predict the maternal mortality rate (MMR), infant mortality rate (IMR), and neonatal mortality rate (NMR) in the aggregate and in urban and rural areas in 2030, in order to provide a basis for the development and planning of the maternal and child health care industry in Jiangxi Province during the period of Healthy China 2030.
Based on the combined and urban-rural MMR, IMR, and NMR data of Jiangxi Province from 2003 to 2020, the Gray GM (1, 1), support vector machine (SVM), neural network auto-regression (NNAR), quadratic exponential smoothing (ES) models were established, and the optimal model was selected to predict the combined and urban-rural MMR, IMR, and NMR for the years 2021-2030. The already predicted aggregate mortality rates were then used to adjust the urban and rural MMR, IMR, and NMR.
In Jiangxi Province, the combined MMR, IMR, and NMR in 2025 and 2030 were 3.09/100 000, 2.52‰, 1.38‰, 1.67/100 000, 1.51‰, and 0.79‰. The urban MMR, IMR, and NMR in 2025 and 2030 were 2.44/100 000, 2.28‰, 1.28‰, and 1.22/100 000, 1.44‰, 0.75‰.And rural MMR, IMR, and NMR in 2025 and 2030 were 3.79/100 000, 2.81‰, 1.52‰,1.90/100 000, 1.63‰, and 0.89‰.
It is expected that Jiangxi Province will reach the targets set out in the “Healthy China 2030” Plan and other policies ahead of schedule in 2025 and 2030 in terms of MMR, IMR and NMR. Although the gap between urban and rural areas in terms of maternal, infant and neonatal mortality rates continues to narrow, the relevant indicators in rural areas are still higher than those in urban areas, an objective gap that indicates that the continued promotion of maternal and child health-care services in rural areas and the optimization of resource allocation at the grass-roots level are still the key directions of public health work.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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