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Toanalyze the application of CNN-BiLSTM combination model and intelligent algorithm optimization in the prediction and early warning of HFMD incidence and to discussthe optimization model for predicting the incidence of HFMD, so as to provide reference for relevant departments to formulate prevention and control measures.
The monthly incidence data of hand, foot and mouth disease in Shanxi Province from January 2009 to December 2019 and the year-end resident population data released by the Shanxi Statistical Yearbook 2008-2020 were collected from January 2009 to December 2019.The monthly incidence data of hand, foot and mouth disease in Shanxi Province from January 2009 to December 2019 were used as sample modeling data to construct the corresponding models in MATLAB 7.6 software, and the prediction effect of each model was compared, and the optimal model was selected according to the principle that the smaller the error value and the higher the accuracy.
By comparing the root mean square error and mean absolute error obtained by predicting the monthly incidence of foot and mouth disease of hand with different models, it can be seen that the CNN-BiLSTM model optimized based on intelligent algorithm is significantly better than the unoptimized CNN-BiLSTM combination model, that is, the values of RMSE and MAE of CNN-BiLSTM-PSO/GAPSO/SSA (1.943 3,1.309 7; 1.879 2, 1.240 2; 1.419 5, 1.169 1) is smaller than the corresponding CNN-BiLSTM model (2.066 3, 1.390 8), among which the CNN-BiLSTM-SSA combination model performs best.
The CNN-LSTM-SSA model has good predictive performance and accuracy in predicting the monthly incidence trend of HFMD, which can be used to predict the future incidence of HFMD in Shanxi Province.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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