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To analyze the changes in lung cancer mortality and DALY attributed to tobacco in China from 1990 to 2019, providing scientific basis for formulating lung cancer prevention and control strategies attributed to tobacco.
Extract lung cancer mortality and DALY rates attributed to tobacco in China from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease database from 1990 to 2019, use Joinpoint software to analyze the trends in mortality and DALY rates, and use an age period cohort (APC) model to analyze age, period, and cohort effects.
The number of lung cancer deaths attributed to tobacco in China increased from 16 500 in 1990 to 51 800 in 2019, and the standardized mortality rate increased from 20.22/100 000 in 1990 to 26.27/100 000 in 2019, with an average annual increase of 0.92% (95% CI: 0.72%-1.11%). The DALY caused by lung cancer attributed to tobacco in China increased from 42.40 million person-years in 1990 to 113.90 million person-years in 2019. The standardized DALY rate increased from 474.81/100 000 in 1990 to 547.54/100 000 in 2019, with an average annual increase of 0.51% (95% CI: 0.27%-0.74%). Compared with the global and different SDI regions, China’s lung cancer standardized mortality rate and standardized DALY rate attributed to tobacco showed the largest increase from 1990 to 2019, reaching 29.93% and 15.32% respectively. The lung cancer mortality rate attributed to tobacco in China from 1990 to 2019 showed an increasing trend with age, with a period effect showing a first decreasing, then increasing, and then decreasing trend. The cohort effect showed a first increasing, then decreasing trend. The prediction model shows that from 2020 to 2030, the standardized mortality rate and standardized DALY rate caused by lung cancer attributed to tobacco in China are both showing a slow upward trend, and may reach 26.96/100 000 and 554.20/100 000 respectively by 2030.
The burden of lung cancer attributed to tobacco in China remained on the rise from 1990 to 2019. Further attention should be paid to the elderly male population, health education, popularization of cancer core knowledge, and early screening, diagnosis, and treatment of lung cancer.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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