To analyze the change of disease burden of injury in China from 1990 to 2019, and to predict the change trend from 2020 to 2034, so as to provide basis for the formulation of injury prevention and control strategies.

Using the global disease burden research database in 2019, the change trends of age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life expectancy rate of injuries in China were analyzed, and the average annual change percentage was calculated.The grey prediction model GM (1) was used to predict the annual DALY change trend from 2020 to 2034.

From 1990 to 2019, the incidence, prevalence, mortality and Daly rate of self-injury and interpersonal violence showed a downward trend, with the largest decrease among people aged 0-9 (AAPC=-2.27%,-0.26%,-4.72%,-6.00%). The incidence and prevalence of traffic injuries showed an upward trend, while mortality and DALY rates generally showed a downward trend, but those over 70 years old showed an upward trend (AAPC=0.26%, 0.88%). The incidence of accidental injuries showed an overall downward trend (AAPC=-0.08%), but showed an upward trend in 2006—2019 (AAPC=2.69%), and the mortality and DALY rates showed an overall downward trend, among which the morbidity, prevalence, mortality and Daly rates of people ≥ 70 years old showed an upward trend (AAPC=1.84%, 1.15%, 0.66%, 0.51%). The grey prediction model showed that the DALY of the three kinds of injuries will show a downward trend from 2020 to 2034. It is estimated that by 2035, the Daly rate will decrease to 166.304 / 100 000, 862.338 / 100 000 and 715.27 / 100 000 respectively.

The mortality rate and DALY rate of three kinds of injuries in China show a general downward trend from 1990 to 2019, but the incidence rate of traffic injuries and accidental injuries are still rising, and the disease burden of the elderly is still increasing.