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To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in Hebei Province from 2014 to August 2024, and to provide a scientific basis for the formulation of effective prevention and control measures.
The case report data of HFMD in Hebei Province from 2014 to August 2024 were extracted from the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System. Descriptive epidemiological methods were used for analysis, and the incidence trend of HFMD was predicted by the ARIMA model.
A total of 371 393 cases of HFMD were reported with 26 deaths from 2014 to August 2024. The average annual incidence and mortality rates were 45.279 1 per 100 000 and 0.003 2 per 100 000, respectively. The incidence rate of HFMD decreased year by year, as did the number of severe cases and deaths. The disease showed a clear seasonal pattern, with a high incidence period from May to July every year. The incidence rates in Langfang, Baoding, and Chengde were high. Children aged 1-4 were the most susceptible group, with more male cases than female. Enterovirus 71, Coxsackievirus A16, and other enteroviruses accounted for 20.62%, 26.87%, and 52.51%, respectively. Using the SARIMAX model to predict the number of HFMD cases from September 2024 to August 2025, which would decrease first and then increase. And the seasonal peak of incidence in 2025 would be higher than that in 2024.
The incidence rate of HFMD in Hebei Province has shown a downward trend, but the peak in 2025 is predicted to be higher than that in 2024. It is necessary to strengthen the monitoring of the epidemic and etiology, scientifically formulate prevention and control plans, and prepare for the response.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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