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Lag effect analysis of the impact of warm season temperature on stroke hospitalization risk, Hengshui City, Hebei, 2023-2025
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Si-meng LIU1, Hao ZHU2, Kai-qi LU2, Yu-yao CAO2, Yao QIN2, Hong-mei YU2, 3, 4
Modern Preventive Medicine | 2026, 53(10) : 1773 - 1780
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Modern Preventive Medicine | 2026, 53(10): 1773-1780
• Environmental and Occupational Health •
Lag effect analysis of the impact of warm season temperature on stroke hospitalization risk, Hengshui City, Hebei, 2023-2025
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Si-meng LIU1, Hao ZHU2, Kai-qi LU2, Yu-yao CAO2, Yao QIN2, Hong-mei YU2, 3, 4
Affiliations
  • Academy of Medical Sciences, Shanxi Medical University, Jinzhong, Shanxi 030600, China
Published: 2026-05-25 doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202601106
Outline
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Objective

To explore the impact of temperature on the number of hospital admissions for stroke in Hengshui City, Hebei Province, and to provide scientific support for relevant prevention and control efforts.

Methods

We collected data on the number of hospital admissions for stroke in a region of Hebei Province, daily meteorological data, and air quality data. A distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was employed to analyze the effects of temperature on hospital admissions among different genders, age groups, and subgroups.

Results

During the warm season (May to October), temperature had a significant impact on the number of hospital admissions for stroke across various populations. With a cumulative lag of 15 days, the cumulative relative risk (RR) of hospital admission for stroke at a relatively low temperature of 20 ℃ in the warm season was 1.291 (95%CI: 1.030-1.619), at 21 ℃ it was 1.216 (95%CI: 1.016-1.456), and at 22 ℃ it was 1.154(95%CI: 1.003-1.327). For females, the RR was 6.422 (95%CI: 1.910-21.588) at 10 ℃. For the population aged ≥ 65 years, the RR was 4.286 (95%CI: 1.401-13.112) at 10 ℃ and 1.117 (95%CI: 1.016-1.228) at 24 ℃. The relatively low temperature range of 20 ℃-26 ℃ in warm seasons could significantly increase the hospitalization risk of cerebral ischemia subtype (RR: 1.09-2.31). The risk peaked at 20℃, when RR was 2.315 (95%CI: 1.338-4.003).

Conclusion

Temperature during the warm season influences the number of hospital admissions for stroke, with relatively low temperatures (20-22 ℃) in the warm season identified as potential risk factors for stroke patient admissions. Moreover, temperature has specific impacts on females, individuals aged 65 and above, and those with cerebral ischemia.

Stroke  /  Meteorological factors  /  Environmental pollution  /  Distributed lag non-linear model
刘思梦, 朱浩, 路凯祺, 曹宇瑶, 秦瑶, 余红梅. 2023—2025年河北省衡水地区暖季气温对脑卒中入院风险的滞后性分析. 现代预防医学, 2026 , 53 (10) : 1773 -1780 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202601106
Si-meng LIU, Hao ZHU, Kai-qi LU, Yu-yao CAO, Yao QIN, Hong-mei YU. Lag effect analysis of the impact of warm season temperature on stroke hospitalization risk, Hengshui City, Hebei, 2023-2025[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2026 , 53 (10) : 1773 -1780 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202601106
Year 2026 volume 53 Issue 10
19
11
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doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202601106
  • Receive Date:2026-01-08
  • Online Date:2026-11-02
  • Published:2026-05-25
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  • Received:2026-01-08
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    Academy of Medical Sciences, Shanxi Medical University, Jinzhong, Shanxi 030600, China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
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Percentage of
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属
Genus
种数
Number of
species
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Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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