Full
Outline
To analyze the evolution of the disease burden of neck pain in China from 1990 to 2023 and to quantify the effects of age, period, and cohort.
Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 study, the annual percentage change was calculated using Joinpoint regression. An age-period-cohort (APC) model was employed to analyze temporal trends in disease burden and to assess its effects.
From 1990 to 2023, the number of prevalent cases of neck pain in China increased from 266.42×106 to 487.71×106. The standardized prevalence increased from 2 479.65 per 100 000 to 2 504.27 per 100 000, with an AAPC of 0.037 5%. The standardized incidence rate among males declined from 491.97 per 100 000 in 1990 to 486.84 per 100 000 in 2023, corresponding to an AAPC of-0.020 7%. The standardized DALYs rate rose from 245.89 per 100 000 to 248.78 per 100 000, with an AAPC of 0.037 6%. A significant reconstruction was observed in the age distribution of disease burden: the peak age across all burden indicators shifted from 35-39 years in 1990 to 55-59 years in 2023, and the standardized rates were significantly higher in females than in males. The APC model indicated that the local drift values for the population aged over 45 years were greater than zero, reflecting a positive growth in risk. The period effect revealed that risk reached a historical high during 2019-2023.
The disease burden of neck pain in China is transitioning from a pattern of “high incidence among young and middle-aged adults” to one marked by “a shift toward older age groups” The absolute burden in terms of case numbers remains substantial due to population aging. This study is the first to elucidate the age restructuring and spatiotemporal evolution of the neck pain burden, identify middle-aged and older women and specific birth cohorts as high-risk groups. The findings provide critical evidence for informing national strategies on the prevention and control of orthopedic chronic conditions and for optimizing the allocation of healthcare resources in China.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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