Full
Outline
To investigate the combined effect of PM2.5 and temperature variability (TV) on years of life lost (YLL) among residents in Taiyuan, and to project future health risks under different climate change scenarios.
Based on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality data in Taiyuan from 2013 to 2019, a generalized additive model (GAM) was used to evaluate the joint risk of PM2.5 and TV. Segmented linear regression and a synergy index were applied to identify their synergistic interaction, and future risks were projected under the 6th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) scenarios.
During 2013—2019, the average concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 were 78.81 μg/m3 and 120.40 μg/m3, respectively, with a mean TV of 7.5 °C. GAM showed that elevated TV exacerbated PM2.5-related health risks. A PM2.5 concentration threshold of 21.9 μg/m3 was identified, above which its impact on YLL increased significantly. High TV (>4.4 °C) combined with high PM2.5 (>21.9 μg/m3) exhibited a significant synergistic effect on YLL (SI=8.51, 95% CI: 2.38-30.45). Future predictions indicated that under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, PM2.5 pollution was most severe (65.3 μg/m3), and compound high TV-high PM2.5 events yielded the highest median daily attributable YLL (8.39 person-years/day).
TV substantially amplifies the health hazards of PM2.5. Controlling high-emission pathways is critical to reducing the future disease burden from such compound events.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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