This study provides data support for the scientific prevention and control of bladder cancer in Gansu Province by analyzing the incidence status, trends, and predicting the incidence trend from 2022 to 2030 of bladder cancer in Gansu Province between 2010 and 2021.

By collecting regional tumor registration data from Gansu Province between 2010 and 2021, we included data meeting tumor data quality control requirements for analysis. Descriptive analyses were conducted by gender and urban-rural regions through calculation of incidence rates and related indicators. Trend analysis of bladder cancer incidence data in Gansu Province over the past 12 years was conducted using Joinpoint. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model analysis method was applied to predict the mortality trend of bladder cancer patients in Gansu Province from 2022 to 2030.

From 2010 to 2021, there were 3 245 new cases of bladder cancer in Gansu Province, with incidence rates, Chinese age-standardized incidence rate, and world-standard incidence rates being 4.88/10⁵, 3.38/10⁵, and 3.31/10⁵, respectively. The overall trend showed higher incidence rates in males than females, higher urban rates than rural areas, with statistically significant differences (all P values <0.05). Incidence rates increased with age, reaching a peak in the 80+ age group (81.96/10⁵). The cumulative rates for 0-64 years and 0-74 years were 0.17% and 0.39%, respectively, while the truncated rate for 35-64 years was 4.71/10⁵. From 2010 to 2021, the incidence of bladder cancer in Gansu Province increased by an average of 4.7% annually, with statistically significant trends (all P values <0.05). The annual percent change (APC=5.0%) was higher in males than females (APC=4.6%). Predictions indicate that the standardized incidence of bladder cancer in Gansu will rise from 2.96/10⁵ in 2021 to 3.50/10⁵ by 2030, with both gender-specific and urban-rural standardized incidence predictions showing upward trends.

From 2010 to 2021, the incidence of bladder cancer in Gansu Province showed an upward trend, and it is predicted that the incidence of bladder cancer will continue to increase from 2022 to 2030. Therefore, more attention should be paid to the impact of bladder cancer on population health, medical and health investment should be increased, and prevention and treatment efforts for elderly men with a high incidence of bladder cancer should be strengthened