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Outline
To analyze the trends and projections of the burden of depressive disorders in China, Japan, the United States, and globally from 1990 to 2050, and to explore epidemiological characteristics in the context of population aging.
Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate (ASDR), and age-standardized lived years with disability rate (ASYR) for depressive disorders during 1990—2021 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database. Trends were stratified by age and sex. The Nordpred model was used for projections to 2050. Differences were examined in relation to the socio-demographic index (SDI).
Global ASIR increased from 1990 to 2021. China showed a slight decline in ASIR but incident cases grew from 30.5 to 42.4 million. The United States had the highest burden, with a 56% increase in ASDR and an accelerated rise after 2010, while Japan remained relatively stable. The projections showed that ASIR and ASDR in the United States would continue to increase by 2050, and aging-driven case expansion in China and Japan. Global ASIR increased from 3 305.96 per 100 000 in 1990 to 4 212.34 per 100 000 in 2021. China showed slight declines in ASIR and ASPR, with ASPR decreasing from 3 071.84 per 100 000 to 2 875.68 per 100 000, but the number of incident cases increased to 42.36 million due to population size. The United States had the highest disease burden, with ASIR increasing to 6 782.80 per 100 000 and ASDR increasing to 1 010.70 per 100 000. Japan’s ASIR increased to 2 992.26 per 100 000. SDI was positively correlated with ASIR (r=0.367, P<0.001). Females consistently exhibited a higher burden, with the largest sex differences in the United States. Age-specific burden was concentrated among those aged 15-49 years in the United States and among those aged ≥70 years in China. In Japan, the burden was characterized by a dual-peak distribution among both young and older populations.
The burden of depressive disorders in China, Japan, and the United States is expected to increase under population aging, with distinct national patterns: rapid escalation in the United States, heavy absolute burden in China, and a dual-risk expansion toward both younger and older generations in Japan. Strengthening primary and community mental health services targeting females, older adults, and young populations is warranted.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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