Full
Outline
To construct a predictive model for frailty risk among older adults living alone, identify key influencing factors, and provide scientific evidence for early screening and intervention of frailty.
Using data from the 2018 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, 1 758 individuals aged 60 years and older living alone were enrolled. The dataset was divided into a training set (n=1 230) and a validation set (n=528) at a 7:3 ratio. The Frailty Index was constructed to assess frailty. Predictor variables were identified using a health ecology model, and LASSO regression and multivariable logistic regression were employed to select predictors influencing frailty in older adults living alone, thereby constructing a risk prediction model. Model performance was evaluated using metrics such as the area under the ROC curve, calibration curves and decision-making analysis curves.
The frailty detection rate among older adults living alone was 24.6%. LASSO regression identified six potential predictors. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that advanced age, female gender, and poor sleep quality were risk factors for frailty among older adults living alone, while exercise and social engagement served as protective factors. In model validation, the area under the ROC curve was 0.822 for the training set and 0.767 for the validation set, and Hosmer-Lemeshow test value P > 0.05. Decision curve analysis indicated that the model demonstrated significantly superior net benefit compared to extreme scenarios within the 0.1-0.75 interval.
The frailty risk prediction model developed for older adults living alone in this study exhibits good predictive performance and clinical applicability, providing a reference for primary healthcare workers to conduct frailty screening among key populations.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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