Full
Outline
To compare the predictive performance of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, Prophet model, random forest (RF) model, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model, and support vector regression (SVR) model on the incidence of other infectious diarrhea diseases in Baoshan District, Shanghai, and to explore the optimal forecasting model.
Using the monthly incidence rates of other infectious diarrhea diseases in Baoshan District, Shanghai from 2014 to 2022 as the training set, the SARIMA model, the Prophet model, the RF model with and without meteorological features, the XGBoost model with and without meteorological features, and the SVR model with and without meteorological features were constructed in Python to predict the monthly incidence rates from 2023 to 2024. The optimal model was selected by comparing the mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the predicted and actual values.
From 2014 to 2024, a total of 6 868 cases of other infectious diarrheal diseases were reported in Baoshan District, Shanghai, with an average annual incidence rate of 28.81 per 100 000 population. The cases exhibited a bimodal seasonal distribution (peaking in summer and winter-spring). By comparing the predictive performance of different time series models on the monthly incidence rate from 2023 to 2024, the XGBoost model without meteorological features showed the best comprehensive performance in terms of fitting accuracy indicators (MAE=5.089, RMSE=6.844, MAPE=54.646%).
The XGBoost model without meteorological features is the best model for short-term prediction of other infectious diarrhea diseases in Baoshan District, which can provide a scientific basis for early warning and prevention of other infectious diarrhea diseases in Baoshan District.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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