Full
Outline
To analyze the incidence trend of viral hepatitis in China from 2006 to 2020 and predict future trends, so as to provide evidence and reference for the prevention and control of viral hepatitis in China.
Based on viral hepatitis surveillance data in China from the Public Health Science Data Center between 2006 and 2020, joinpoint regression analysis was used to examine trends in incidence rates. An age-period-cohort model was applied to assess age, period, and birth cohort effects. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was employed to predict incidence trends from 2021 to 2030.
The overall incidence of viral hepatitis in China showed a significant decreasing trend from 2006 to 2020 (AAPC=-1.63%, P<0.001).Specifically, the incidence of hepatitis A (AAPC=-11.16%) and hepatitis B (AAPC=-2.12%) continued to decline, while hepatitis C exhibited an initial increase followed by stabilization (AAPC=7.04%), and hepatitis E showed fluctuating trends(AAPC=-0.32%). The age-period-cohort analysis revealed a bimodal age distribution for hepatitis B, with the first peak in the 0-4 age group (314.34 per 100 000) and a secondary peak in the 20-24 age group (255.68 per 100 000). The risk of hepatitis C increased with age, reaching a peak in the 75-79 age group (48.17 per 100 000). Period effects indicated that the relative risks(RR) for all types of hepatitis were below 1 during 2016—2020, with the overall RR for viral hepatitis decreasing to 0.81 (95% CI: 0.77-0.86), hepatitis A to 0.64 (95% CI: 0.62-0.67), hepatitis B to 0.83 (95% CI: 0.78-0.89), hepatitis C to 0.91 (95% CI:0.88-0.95), and hepatitis E to 0.88 (95% CI: 0.84-0.92). Birth cohort analysis identified that the highest risk of hepatitis B occurred in the 1931—1935 birth cohort (RR=1.77, 95% CI: 1.15-2.72), while hepatitis C risk was highest in the 1976—1980 birth cohort (RR=1.30, 95% CI: 1.21-1.39). The Bayesian age-period-cohort model predicted that the incidence of viral hepatitis in China would reach 48.25 per 100 000 by 2030, with hepatitis B (42.45 per 100 000) and hepatitis C (5.40 per 100 000) remaining the major burdens.
Significant progress has been made in the prevention and control of viral hepatitis in China. However, hepatitis B and hepatitis C continue to pose major challenges. Future efforts should focus on achieving universal hepatitis B vaccination for newborns, promoting active screening for hepatitis C among the elderly, and implementing multidimensional collaborative prevention and control strategies.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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