Full
Outline
To quantitatively assess the causal association between tuberculosis（TB）prevention and control models in Xinjiang and the number of TB incidence in Kashgar region, and to provide a scientific basis for optimising TB prevention and control strategies.
Monthly reported incidence data of tuberculosis in Kashgar region from 2013 to 2023 were collected in this study. The epidemiological profile of TB in Kashgar was described using Joinpoint regression, and a Bayesian structural time series model was used to construct a counterfactual simulation of the number of TB cases in Kashgar to evaluate the effectiveness of the ‘Xinjiang model’ in a multidimensional way.
Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the average annual percentage change（APC）reversed from +21.24% before the policy implementation to -25.06%（P<0.05）, which was highly consistent with the time of policy initiation. The Bayesian structural time series model reflected inter-regional heterogeneity: the effectiveness of the intervention in Kashgar was outstanding（posterior probability 99.4%, P=0.006）, with a cumulative total of 30 659 TB cases prevented.
By using Joinpoint regression to capture the development trend of tuberculosis, and relying on the counterfactual framework to deduct the spatial and temporal heterogeneity, it was confirmed that the Xinjiang model could effectively control the existing tuberculosis epidemic in Kashgar, and provide scientific support for the optimisation of the policy of infectious disease prevention and control, as well as the practice of precision prevention and control in Xinjiang.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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