Full
Outline
To improve the structural quality of influenza surveillance data and enhance the performance of predictive models by leveraging an epidemic dynamics-informed data assimilation approach.
This study constructed a data assimilation framework that combined a Susceptible–Infectious–Recovered–Susceptible（SIRS）model with the Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter（EAKF）to assimilate weekly Goldstein indices（Influenza-like Illness Percentage × Positive Rate）from 21 cities in Sichuan Province. The signal-to-noise ratio（SNR）was used to evaluate the effect of data structure optimization, and predictive performance before and after assimilation was assessed using three forecasting models: ARIMA, RNN, and LSTM. Linear mixed-effect models were applied to quantify the impact of assimilation on SNR and root mean squared error（RMSE）. Statistical significance was defined as P<0.05.
After applying the SIRS-EAKF assimilation framework, the SNR significantly increased in 18 cities（85.7%）, with an average improvement of 3.26（P<0.01）. Across all three prediction models, RMSE were significantly reduced in the assimilated data group（all P<0.05）.
The SIRS-EAKF framework effectively suppressed the noise and enhanced the expression of the dominant epidemic signal through incorporating dynamical mechanisms. Without altering the structure of the prediction model, it significantly improved both the quality of influenza surveillance data and the predictive accuracy. This approach provides a robust methodological foundation for real-time epidemic forecasting and public health decision-making.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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