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Application of spatial-temporal multicomponent model based on different spatial weight settings to influenza incidence data in Sichuan Province with complex terrain
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Hai-ping HUANG1, Ying CHEN1, Heng YUAN2, Tao ZHANG1
Modern Preventive Medicine | 2025, 52(22) : 4052 - 4058
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Modern Preventive Medicine | 2025, 52(22): 4052-4058
• Epidemiology and Statistical Methods Advances •
Application of spatial-temporal multicomponent model based on different spatial weight settings to influenza incidence data in Sichuan Province with complex terrain
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Hai-ping HUANG1, Ying CHEN1, Heng YUAN2, Tao ZHANG1
Affiliations
  • West China School of Public Health/West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China
Published: 2025-11-25 doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202505418
Outline
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Objective

To compare the spatial-temporal multicomponent model with different spatial weight settings in different terrains, and to explore the optimal weight settings in different terrains. Then to study the distribution and influencing factors of influenza incidence in different terrains of Sichuan Province, so as to provide scientific basis for spatial weight settings and identification of risk influencing factors as well as the formulation of prevention and control measures.

Methods

Based on the influenza incidence data in Sichuan Province from 2016 to 2018, we conducted a descriptive analysis of the spatial and temporal influenza situation in different terrain areas(plains, hills and plateau mountainous regions), explored the optimal weight settings for different terrains using a spatial-temporal multicomponent model, and further analyzed the spatial and temporal influenza propagation dynamics through the optimal model to quantify the effects of meteorological and socio-economic factors.

Results

The optimal weights were inverse distance weights for plains and Power-law weights for hills and plateau and mountainous regions. The results of the factor analysis of the optimal model showed that the average temperature in the plains(RR=0.970, 95% CI: 0.958-0.982, P<0.001), hills(RR=0.960, 95% CI: 0.942-0.978, P<0.001)and plateau and mountainous regions(RR=0.913, 95% CI: 0.868-0.960, P<0.001)were all inhibitory to the risk of influenza. Air pressure was protective in the plains(RR=0.990, 95% CI: 0.979-1.000, P=0.049), while showing elevated risk in the hills(RR=1.044, 95% CI: 1.016-1.072, P=0.002)and plateau and mountainous regions(RR=1.005, 95% CI: 1.002-1.009, P=0.004).

Conclusion

The spatial weights of plains, hills, plateau and mountainous regions should be carefully considered when constructing the model. Inverse distance weights are more suitable for plains, while Power-law weights are more suitable for hills, plateau and mountainous regions. Meanwhile, there are differences in the influence of influenza morbidity risk in different topographic areas, and it is suggested that different early warning and control measures should be developed according to the key risk factors in different areas and key risk characteristics of the areas.

Spatial-temporal multicomponent model  /  Influenza  /  Spatial weight matrix  /  Influencing factors  /  Spatial-temporal analysis
黄海平, 陈莹, 袁珩, 张韬. 基于不同空间权重设置下的时空多成分模型在四川省复杂地形流感发病数据中的应用. 现代预防医学, 2025 , 52 (22) : 4052 -4058 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202505418
Hai-ping HUANG, Ying CHEN, Heng YUAN, Tao ZHANG. Application of spatial-temporal multicomponent model based on different spatial weight settings to influenza incidence data in Sichuan Province with complex terrain[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2025 , 52 (22) : 4052 -4058 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202505418
Year 2025 volume 52 Issue 22
58
28
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doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202505418
  • Receive Date:2025-05-29
  • Online Date:2026-10-29
  • Published:2025-11-25
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  • Received:2025-05-29
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    West China School of Public Health/West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)
属
Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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