Full
Outline
Based on the theoretical framework of the grey system, a combined model suitable for the demand prediction of elderly care service beds is constructed to reveal the future development trend of elderly care service bed resources in different regions of China from the perspective of regional differences, providing decision-making references for optimizing the allocation of elderly care resources and the formulation of related policies.
Researchers construct a combined prediction framework integrating improved models such as the fractional-order grey model and the non-homogeneous discrete grey model. Based on the relevant indicator data of elderly care service beds in the “China Social Statistical Yearbook”, they predict the changing trend of elderly care service bed demand in the four regions of eastern, central, western and northeastern China from 2024 to 2028.
By 2028, the number of elderly care beds in China and its four representative provinces is expected to reach 6 653 258，740 181，572 245，184 002, and 237 566, respectively. The demand for elderly care service beds in the four major regions of the east, central, west and northeast all shows an upward trend. Especially in the east and central regions, the growth is more significant, reflecting the greater elderly care pressure brought about by the intensification of population aging. Although the overall demand in the western and northeastern regions is relatively low, it is also showing a steady upward trend, indicating that the pressure of elderly care in these areas will gradually increase in the future.
The resources of elderly care service beds in various regions of our country will continue to grow in the future. The allocation level of elderly care resources in the eastern region will still be better than that in the central and western regions as well as the northeastern region. This research can better reflect the differential characteristics of elderly care service demands in various regions and provide strong support for the scientific allocation of regional elderly care resources.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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