Full
Outline
To analyze the disease burden of alcoholic liver cirrhosis in China and globally from 1990 to 2021, and to predict the trend of burden changes from 2022 to 2050, providing a reference for the prevention and control of alcoholic liver cirrhosis in China.
Data on the prevalence, mortality, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) rates of alcoholic liver cirrhosis in different gender and age groups in China and globally from 1990 to 2021, along with their 95% uncertainty intervals (95%UI), were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database. Joinpoint 5.0.1 software was used to calculate the temporal trends of the disease burden of alcoholic liver cirrhosis in China and globally. The nested Bayesian meta-regression model was employed to predict the burden of alcoholic liver cirrhosis.
The age-standardized prevalence (average annual percent change [AAPC]=-0.93% and -0.46% respectively), age-standardized mortality (AAPC=-2.17% and -0.89% respectively), and age-standardized DALYs rate (AAPC=-2.26% and -0.86% respectively) of alcoholic liver cirrhosis in China and globally showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2021. The burden of alcoholic liver cirrhosis in males was more severe than that in females in both China and globally, and the burden in people aged 50 years and above was more severe than that in those aged 15-49 years. It is predicted that by 2050, the age-standardized mortality rate in China will be 0.68 per 100 000, and the age-standardized DALYs rate will be 20.60 per 100 000; globally, the age-standardized mortality rate will be 4.36 per 100 000, and the age-standardized DALYs rate will be 134.70 per 100 000.
The disease burden of alcoholic liver cirrhosis in China is lower than the global level, with significant gender and age differences. It is recommended to strengthen attention to high-risk groups, allocate more resources to prevention and early detection, promote health education, and encourage residents to adopt healthy lifestyles.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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