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Based on biopsychosocial (BPS) perspective, this study explores the prevalence of dementia and related risk factors, providing a reference for the prevention and control of dementia.
Using the 2018 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) data, a statistical analysis was conducted on individuals aged 60 and above. Lasso regression was employed to select variables, and binary logistic regression was used to analyze risk factors for dementia. The dataset was divided into a 7:3 ratio to construct a logistic nomogram prediction model for the risk of dementia, and the model was validated using receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), decision curve analysis (DCA), and calibration curves.
A total of 3 464 study subjects were included, with 2 425 in the training set and 1 039 in the test set. The prevalence of dementia was 23.96%. Through lasso regression and logistic regression analysis, five risk factors were identified: gender (OR=3.918, P<0.001), age (OR=1.398, P<0.001), education level (OR=1.589, P<0.001), napping (OR=0.799, P=0.013), and life insurance (OR=0.613, P=0.016). The evaluation of the logistic nomogram prediction model for the risk of dementia showed that the area under the curve (AUC) for the training set was 0.729 (95% CI: 0.706-0.752) and the AUC for the test set was 0.713(95% CI: 0.677-0.749). The DCA threshold probability for the training set was 10%-84%, and the threshold probability for the test set was 15%-78%. The calibration curves for both the training and test sets showed good agreement with the prediction curve.
Gender, age, education level, napping, and life insurance are the main risk factors for dementia and society should focus on and effectively intervene in these factors. In addition, the constructed nomogram prediction model for the risk of dementia has good predictive performance and can be used for external prediction.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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