Innovation, promotion and application of green and low-carbon technology is an important measure to implement the "double carbon" goal, and it is also an important driving force to promote the green and low-carbon transformation of industry and achieve high-quality economic development. Using the system dynamics model, this paper takes 2015—2021 as the simulation period, explores the coupling model and driving mechanism of green patent output based on the three dimensions of government, enterprise, and university and research, verifies the validity of the model through historical test and sensitivity analysis, and simulates the change trend of green patent output in the future. The results show as follows. The three subsystems of government, enterprise, and university and research affect the output of green patents through different driving paths. Among all the driving paths, increasing the intensity of government's investment in university and research or scientific and technological innovation, enterprises' investment in industry, university and research, and financial institutions' investment in university and research can promote the increase of green patent output in the future. Therefore, this paper suggests that under the comprehensive action of the government, enterprises, and university and research, and guided by the green low-carbon industry and the "dual carbon" goal, taking green technology innovation as the means of development will further accelerate the completion of the "dual carbon" goal.

green patent output  /  driving mechanism  /  system dynamics