Urban rail transit construction is significant to urban development and is an important part of urban construction. This paper uses single- and double-factor analysis to study the impact of urban GDP and central area population density on the development mileage of urban rail transit. Based on this, the development of urban rail transit is divided into three stages, and a qualitative and quantitative analysis of policy impact is also conducted. The results show that the initial requirement for urban GDP of rail transit construction is about 500 billion yuan and the initial requirement for population density of central area is about 4,000 people/km². Different stages of rail transit development are affected by urban GDP and central area population density in different degrees. The higher the rail transit investment ratio, the higher the policy impact coefficient is. The development of rail transit in most cities of China is promoted by policies, such as Wuhan, but there are also a few cities, such as Shenyang, where rail transit is inhibited by policies.

urban rail transit  /  population density  /  policy impact coefficient