With the impact of climate change, the spatial and temporal distribution of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong province is changing. The data of storm surges in the 18 tide stations for the past 30 years and the data of tropical cyclones for the past 60 years are collected. The research concerning the relations among temperature of sea surface, frequency of tropical cyclones landed and scale of storm surges is quoted. The prediction of sea level rise in Pearl River Delta is referenced. Using the spatial analysis technology of ArcGIS, the submerged scope for storm surge in the coastal area of Guangdong in year 2050 is determined and the hazard assessment is carried out. Five vulnerability assessment indicators of hazard-bearing bodies are proposed, which are social economic index, land use index, eco-environmental index, coastal construction index and disaster-bearing capability index. Then a storm surge vulnerability assessment index system in the Guangdong coastal area of Guangdong is established. Additionally, the international general model about coastal vulnerability assessment is improved. The vulnerability of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong in 2050 is calculated. Based on the hazard assessment and vulnerability assessment under climate change, the risk assessment of storm surges in the study region in 2050 is done and the a risk zoning map is drawn. This study reveals the risk of storm surges in the coastal cities in the future, and which may guide the government decision-making and land planning and provide scientific advices for the government to prevent and mitigate storm surge disasters, as well as for engineering design.

climate change  /  storm surges  /  risk assessment  /  Guangdong Province  /  sea level rising