With more than twenty years of development, China has become a world leader in the core technologies and industrialization of new energy vehicle（NEV） industry. Therefore, it is a great concern to China to ensure the sustainable development of new energy vehicles (NEVs) for the next ten years. This research aims to explore and uncover the laws of certainty from the uncertainty of NEV market, and to analyze and predict the cyclical and structural trend of NEVs' development over the next ten years in China. The main conclusions are as follows: From now to 2026, the market penetration of the NEV will continue to maintain a rapid growth. The new energy revolution, with NEVs, lithium batteries and photovoltaic cells as its three emerging pillars, will make a breakthrough. By 2030, NEVs will achieve profitability. Based on the development of NEVs, the development of new energy will turn into a new energy revolution. By 2035, the priorities of NEVs and the new energy revolution will change from the technological innovation into social concepts and business models reforms. The paper also discussed the possible challenges, including intensified internal competition, overcapacity, market fluctuations and increased uncertainty, which may impede China's NEVs to enter a new level of development, Meanwhile, it proposed feasible solutions to respond to these challenges and risks.

new energy vehicle  /  new energy revolution  /  power battery  /  smart energy  /  business model revolution