According to the water resources ecological footprint model and system dynamics method, four different scenarios are designed to evaluate and predict the water resources ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of the North China Plain (NCP) in the current years (2000—2018) and future years (2019—2050) based on the construction of water resources utilization SD (system dynamics) model of the NCP. The results show the followings: 1) for the current years, the average values of per capita water resources ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity and ecological profit and loss are 0.427, 0.126 and -0.302 hm²/capita, respectively, and the average values of water resources ecological pressure index and ecological economic coordination index are 3.522 and 1.242, respectively. The water resources in the NCP are under excessive pressure and in an unsafe utilization state. The South-to-North Water Transfer Project can alleviate water resources ecological loss in the NCP to a certain extent. 2) in the future, the average values of per capita water resources ecological footprint under the four scenarios will be 0.392, 0.430, 0.329 and 0.359 hm²/capita, respectively, and the average values of per capita water resources ecological carrying capacity will be 0.121, 0.121, 0.121 and 0.120 hm²/capita, respectively, resulting in per capita water resources ecological losses of 0.271, 0.309, 0.208 and 0.239 hm²/capita. The average values of water resources ecological pressure indexes and ecological economic coordination indexes under the four scenarios will be 3.240, 3.571, 2.734 and 3.011, and 1.251, 1.235, 1.283 and 1.266, respectively. The water resources utilization pressure in the NCP in the future will be large and in an unsafe state. 3) from 2019 to 2050, the pressure and the state of unsafe utilization of water resources will continue in the NCP. Scenario NS4 can not only ensure economic development but also reduce the degree of water resources unsafe utilization, which is a development scenario that should be considered in the NCP in the future. However, it is necessary to promote applications of various water saving measures and technologies and improve water efficiency of various departments. Only in this way can the sustainable utilization of water resources be realized.

water resources ecological footprint  /  water resources ecological carrying capacity  /  sustainable water resources utilization  /  system dynamics  /  North China Plain