China's population mostly resides in its cities. Large scale, quick growth, and challenging decarbonization are the characteristics of carbon emissions from the urban transportation sector. Future urban travel patterns will be significantly impacted by new transportation forms like sharing and intelligence, which are also a key component of the urban passenger transport emission reduction strategy. In order to forecast future urban passenger transport demand and quantify the emission reduction effects of shared and intelligent transportation, this paper applies the T3E−SAM model and set up dual carbon target scenarios and technological transformation scenario. The findings indicate that, between 2025 and 2040, China's urban passenger traffic is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.7%. After 2040, the growth rate will exhibit a declining trend, averaging 0.4% yearly decrease from 2041 to 2060. In the dual carbon target scenario, carbon emissions from urban passenger transportation will peak in 2027, and by 2060, carbon emissions from private vehicles will be the only source of emissions. Urban passenger transport carbon emissions are predicted to peak in 2025 and reach zero in 2057 under the technological transformation scenario. The widespread adoption of shared, electric, and intelligent technologies will support the achievement of urban transportation zero−emission goals, reduce the number of private vehicles, and significantly improve urban transportation efficiency. Based on the results of the model, this article puts forward a series of policy collaborative development suggestions: "Technological empowerment to accelerate the application of intelligent vehicles; Concept empowerment to promote the popularization of sharing concepts such as use rather than ownership; Management empowerment to support intelligence and sharing Transform travel into reality".