Science & Technology Review
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2022, 40(9): 40-52
• Exclusive: Post-pandemic Era •
An infectious disease model considering the impact of imported cases on internal spread of COVID-19
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XU Jingsi1,2, WANG Zijun3, LIU Mengjie1,4, LI Liangliang5, CHEN An2
Affiliations
1. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
2. Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;
3. School of Finance, Nankai University, Tianjin 300350, China;
4. Sino-Danish College, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 101408, China;
5. School of Business, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
Published: 2022-05-13
doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2022.09.005
Outline
The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) pandemic spreads across borders with the frequent global population movement. To explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on China's domestic epidemic prevention and control, based on the classical infectious disease dynamics model this paper proposes an infectious disease model that considers oversea imported cases. The model can simulate three situations:national pandemic without imported cases, no domestic cases with only imported cases, and domestic cases with international travellers entering simultaneously. By calculating the peak case number and range of infection spread duration in these situations, as well as the amount of medical resources invested, the model has shown the different results of impact of entry type on the domestic pandemic and different pressures on medical resources. Finally, the paper suggests that testing measures should be taken according to the degree of pandemic risk and resource conditions, that strict prevention and control should be applied to the people not entering through customs, and closed-loop management to the people entering through customs, that entry quarantine measures and quarantine periods should be dynamically adjusted and international exchanges should be gradually resumed in the context of ensuring domestic and overseas epidemic prevention and control in advance, and that it is necessary to integrate medical resources, improve allocation efficiency, and relieve the pressure of resource occupation.
COVID-19
/
epidemic prevention and control
/
imported cases
/
SEIDR model
XU Jingsi, WANG Zijun, LIU Mengjie, LI Liangliang, CHEN An.
An infectious disease model considering the impact of imported cases on internal spread of COVID-19[J].
Science & Technology Review,
2022
, 40
(9)
: 40
-52
.
DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2022.09.005
Year 2022 volume 40 Issue 9
PDF
627
218
Cite this Article
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Article Info
doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2022.09.005
- Receive Date:2021-07-14
- Online Date:2022-07-20
- Published:2022-05-13