Maintaining stable production is difficult for a water flooding oilfield during the high water-cut period, which usually brings about losses to the oilfield company due to the abnormal fluctuation of production. In order to provide a basis for the adjustment strategy, making oilfields more risk- resistant, a 2- level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for early warning of production running is established. The model includes dual functions: The early warnings in production composition and production integration. Ten significant indexes influencing the production are chosen related with the production composition, the reservoir energy complement and the management; Meanwhile the influences of these indexes are analyzed. Index weight vector is calculated by using the production data, and the membership matrix is maintained by using the (0,1) membership degree method. The established model is validated through historical production data of A and B oil extraction factories in Shengli Oilfield. It is shown that the early warning for situations of production's abnormal decrease is accurate. The model also provides a risk reference from probabilistic prospective. Besides, the early warning in production composition can help analyze the production's abnormal decrease to determine the direction of the production adjustment.

water flooding oilfield  /  fuzzy comprehensive evaluation  /  high water-cut period