Full
Outline
To explore the risk factors for hematochezia in infants with cow's milk protein allergy(CMPA) and to construct and to validate a prediction model.
A retrospective study was conducted.A total of 408 infants with CMPA who visited the pediatric or child health care outpatient departments of tertiary hospitals from January to December 2024 were included as the modeling group.Another 175 infants with CMPA were included as the validation group.Participants were divided into a hematochezia group and a non-hematochezia group based on whether hematochezia occurred.Characteristic variables were selected using a combination of LASSO regression and the Boruta algorithm. Five machine learning algorithms-random forest,support vector machine,extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost),decision tree,and Logistic regression,were applied to construct prediction models.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC) from internal validation was used as the primary criterion for selecting the optimal model.The optimal model was then subjected to external validation and interpretability analysis.
Feeding intolerance,age in months,eczema,early-life antibiotic exposure,formula feeding,maternal consumption of allergenic foods during lactation,maternal history of allergy,and first feeding(formula) were identified as independent risk factors for hematochezia in infants with CMPA.The XGBoost model demonstrated the best predictive performance,with AUC values of 0.841 in the modeling group and 0.821 in the validation group.SHAP values of the XGBoost model revealed that feeding intolerance,age in months,and eczema were the top three important predictive factors.
The XGBoost model shows good performance in predicting the risk of hematochezia in infants with CMPA. It could serve as a reference for healthcare professionals to identify high-risk infants early.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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