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Analysis of risk factors for unplanned extubation based on association rules and construction of a predictive model
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Junyao SONG1, Jing YANG2, Anming LENG2, Wan HUANG1
Chinese Nursing Research | 2026, 40(17) : 3098 - 3103
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Chinese Nursing Research | 2026, 40(17): 3098-3103
• Comprehensive Study •
Analysis of risk factors for unplanned extubation based on association rules and construction of a predictive model
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Junyao SONG1, Jing YANG2, Anming LENG2, Wan HUANG1
Affiliations
  • 1School of Nursing, Guizhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Guizhou 550000 China
  • 2Guizhou Provincial People's Hospital
Published: 2026-09-10 doi: 10.12102/j.issn.1009-6493.2026.17.021
Outline
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Objective

To explore multifactor combination patterns of unplanned extubation using association rule mining and to construct a Bayesian network predictive model.

Methods

A retrospective case-control study was conducted.Clinical data were collected from 133 patients with unplanned extubation and 350 control patients at a tertiary grade A hospital in Guizhou province between January 2013 and December 2023.The Apriori algorithm was used to mine association rules and screen strong association rules. Meanwhile,the max-min hill-climbing(MMHC) algorithm was employed to construct a Bayesian network predictive model,which was used to analyze causal relationships and risk probabilities among various factors.

Results

A total of 20 strong association rules were identified. Factors such as night shift,years of nursing experience,caregiver responsibility lacking,omission of catheter assessment,pain,agitation,restraint status,catheter retention time,and age were closely associated with unplanned extubation.The Bayesian network model consisted of 10 nodes and 14 directed edges,and the incidence of unplanned extubation under high-risk combinations could reach 90%.

Conclusions

Unplanned extubation results from the interaction of multiple factors,with omission of assessment during handover representing a core risk link.The predictive model constructed in this study demonstrates strong risk identification and predictive capabilities,providing a quantitative tool for early warning and intervention in clinical settings.

unplanned extubation  /  handover  /  association rules  /  adverse events  /  Apriori algorithm  /  Bayesian network
宋俊瑶, 杨静, 冷安明, 黄婉. 基于关联规则的非计划拔管风险因素分析及预测模型构建. 护理研究, 2026 , 40 (17) : 3098 -3103 . DOI: 10.12102/j.issn.1009-6493.2026.17.021
Junyao SONG, Jing YANG, Anming LENG, Wan HUANG. Analysis of risk factors for unplanned extubation based on association rules and construction of a predictive model[J]. Chinese Nursing Research, 2026 , 40 (17) : 3098 -3103 . DOI: 10.12102/j.issn.1009-6493.2026.17.021
Year 2026 volume 40 Issue 17
56
23
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Article Info
doi: 10.12102/j.issn.1009-6493.2026.17.021
  • Receive Date:2025-11-12
  • Online Date:2026-10-30
  • Published:2026-09-10
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History
  • Received:2025-11-12
  • Revised:2026-05-18
Affiliations
    1School of Nursing, Guizhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Guizhou 550000 China
    2Guizhou Provincial People's Hospital
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family
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Number of
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Number of
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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