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Evaluation on the effect of antimicrobial stewardship measures based on Bayesian interrupted time series
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Zixin HAO1, Hao REN1, Yudong ZHANG1, Yijia WU1, Yi LU1, Jinju DUAN2, Lixia QIU1
Chinese Nursing Research | 2026, 40(6) : 930 - 934
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Chinese Nursing Research | 2026, 40(6): 930-934
• Original Articles •
Evaluation on the effect of antimicrobial stewardship measures based on Bayesian interrupted time series
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Zixin HAO1, Hao REN1, Yudong ZHANG1, Yijia WU1, Yi LU1, Jinju DUAN2, Lixia QIU1
Affiliations
  • 1Shanxi Medical University, Shanxi 030001 China
  • 2Second Hospital of Shanxi Medical University
Published: 2026-03-25 doi: 10.12102/j.issn.1009-6493.2026.06.006
Outline
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Objective

To explore the dynamic change characteristics of the incidence of hospital infections before and after the intervention of antimicrobial stewardship measures,and to quantitatively evaluate the short-term and long-term impacts of antimicrobial stewardship measures.

Methods

Data on the infection rate of Klebsiella pneumoniae(KPN) among inpatients from July 2017 to December 2018 were collected as pre-intervention data.Data on the KPN infection rate among inpatients from January 2019 to June 2020 were collected as post-intervention data.The Bayesian interrupted time series method was used to evaluate the changing trend of KPN infection rate before and after the implementation of antimicrobial stewardship measures.

Results

The average monthly KPN infection rate from July 2017 to June 2020 was 0.941%.The average monthly KPN infection rate before the implementation of antimicrobial stewardship measures was 0.947%.The average monthly KPN infection rate after the implementation of antimicrobial stewardship measures was 0.934%.The parameter estimation results of the model with a lag period of 2 months showed that β^2 was statistically significant(P<0.05),with a risk ratio of 0.818.β^3 was statistically significant(P<0.05),β^1+β^3=0.021,with a risk ratio of 1.021.β^4 was statistically significant(P<0.05),with a risk ratio of 1.661.The results of the relative changes between the predictive values and counterfactual values showed that the changes from March to May 2019 all decreased (all P<0.05),while the changes from April to June 2020 all increased (all P<0.05).

Conclusions

The Bayesian interrupted time series model could effectively evaluate the short-term and long-term effects of intervention measures.It could also evaluate whether the intervention had a lag effect or not.The implementation of hospital antimicrobial stewardship measures could reduce the infection risk in the short term,with a 2-month lag period in the intervention effect,while the long-term effect was not ideal.

antimicrobial stewardship  /  Bayesian interrupted time series model  /  hospital infection  /  prevention and control  /  Klebsiella pneumoniae
郝梓欣, 任浩, 张雨东, 吴诒家, 鲁祎, 段金菊, 仇丽霞. 基于贝叶斯中断时间序列的抗菌药物管理措施效果评价. 护理研究, 2026 , 40 (6) : 930 -934 . DOI: 10.12102/j.issn.1009-6493.2026.06.006
Zixin HAO, Hao REN, Yudong ZHANG, Yijia WU, Yi LU, Jinju DUAN, Lixia QIU. Evaluation on the effect of antimicrobial stewardship measures based on Bayesian interrupted time series[J]. Chinese Nursing Research, 2026 , 40 (6) : 930 -934 . DOI: 10.12102/j.issn.1009-6493.2026.06.006
Year 2026 volume 40 Issue 6
44
19
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Article Info
doi: 10.12102/j.issn.1009-6493.2026.06.006
  • Receive Date:2025-03-21
  • Online Date:2026-10-28
  • Published:2026-03-25
Article Data
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History
  • Received:2025-03-21
  • Revised:2025-12-24
Affiliations
    1Shanxi Medical University, Shanxi 030001 China
    2Second Hospital of Shanxi Medical University

Corresponding:

QIU Lixia, E-mail:
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
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属
Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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