To explore the dynamic trajectory of estimated pulse wave velocity in middle-aged and elderly people and its relationship with cardiovascular diseases.

Based on the population cohort data from the China health and retirement longitudinal study(CHARLS),general information and laboratory indicators of the population were collected. The group-based trajectory model (GBTM) was used to construct the heterogeneous trajectories of the estimated pulse wave velocity dynamics in the community among the elderly. Logistic regression analysis was applied to explore the relationship between the estimated pulse wave velocity dynamic trajectory and cardiovascular diseases.

A total of 5 933 participants were included in the analysis, among whom 1 112 cases (18.7%) developed cardiovascular diseases.The GBTM analysis revealed four estimated trajectories of pulse wave velocity changes:the low-level stable group(30.0%),the medium-level ascending group(39.6%),the ascending and stable group(23.0%),and the high-level ascending group(7.4%).Logistic regression analysis showed that, after adjusting for confounding factors, compared with the low-level stable group,the risk of cardiovascular diseases significantly increased in the medium-level ascending group, the ascending and stable group,and the high-level ascending group.

The estimated pulse wave velocity trajectories of the elderly in the community showed population heterogeneity.The higher estimated pulse wave velocity trajectories was correlated with the occurrence of cardiovascular diseases.It is suggested that medical staff should pay attention to the changes in the estimated pulse wave velocity of the elderly and formulate corresponding intervention strategies based on different trajectories.