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Ultra-short-term wind power prediction based on modal decomposition and combined neural network
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Zhengzhong GAO1, Yi KUANG1, Jinglong ZHANG2
Thermal Power Generation | 2025, 54(10) : 82 - 92
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Thermal Power Generation | 2025, 54(10): 82-92
Thermal energy science research
Ultra-short-term wind power prediction based on modal decomposition and combined neural network
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Zhengzhong GAO1, Yi KUANG1, Jinglong ZHANG2
Affiliations
  • 1.College of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, China
  • 2.Yiqiao Coal Mine of Jining Energy Group, Jining 272500, China
Published: 2025-10-25 doi: 10.19666/j.rlfd.202412272
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Due to the significant volatility and randomness of wind power data, low prediction accuracy is often observed with a single model in wind power prediction. To overcome this, an ultra-short-term wind power prediction method is introduced, based on modal decomposition and a combined neural network model. Firstly, the wind power data are processed based on the improved fully integrated empirical modal decomposition and sample entropy, which decomposes the unsteady series into smoother sub-sequences and reconstructs the high-frequency oscillatory component and low-frequency smooth component synchronously. Secondly, a hybrid prediction model for wind power based on an adaptive sparse self-attention mechanism is constructed. For the high-frequency oscillatory component with high complexity, the adaptive sparse Transformer model is used to fully explore the fluctuation information. For the low-frequency stationary components, the sequence features are fully extracted by the bidirectional gated recurrent unit model. Finally, the final prediction outcomes are derived by overlaying the forecast results of each component. Test was performed with actual data from a wind farm in Shandong, and the results show that, compared with other commonly used models, the proposed model’s root mean square error and average absolute error has decreased by 2.644 MW and 2.42 MW, and the coefficient of determination has a notable 18.2% increase, implying it has a good prediction performance.

modal decomposition  /  wind power prediction  /  sample entropy  /  adaptive sparse self-attention mechanism
Zhengzhong GAO, Yi KUANG, Jinglong ZHANG. Ultra-short-term wind power prediction based on modal decomposition and combined neural network[J]. Thermal Power Generation, 2025 , 54 (10) : 82 -92 . DOI: 10.19666/j.rlfd.202412272
  • National Natural Science Foundation of China(62273215)
Year 2025 volume 54 Issue 10
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Article Info
doi: 10.19666/j.rlfd.202412272
  • Receive Date:2024-12-27
  • Online Date:2026-03-05
  • Published:2025-10-25
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  • Received:2024-12-27
Funding
National Natural Science Foundation of China(62273215)
Affiliations
    1.College of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, China
    2.Yiqiao Coal Mine of Jining Energy Group, Jining 272500, China
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https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/rlfd/EN/10.19666/j.rlfd.202412272
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Number of
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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