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Joint probabilistic risk assessment of wind power transformer connected to distribution networks considering source-load correlation
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Yan GAN1, Jingxuan HE2, Jianming ZOU1, Hualin LYU1, Zhiye DU2, Hongwei CAI2, Jingwen HUANG2
Thermal Power Generation | 2023, 52(9) : 162 - 170
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Thermal Power Generation | 2023, 52(9): 162-170
• Power generation technology forum •
Joint probabilistic risk assessment of wind power transformer connected to distribution networks considering source-load correlation
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Yan GAN1, Jingxuan HE2, Jianming ZOU1, Hualin LYU1, Zhiye DU2, Hongwei CAI2, Jingwen HUANG2
Affiliations
  • 1.Central China Branch of State Grid Corporation, Wuhan 730074, China
  • 2.School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Wuhan University, Wuhan 730072, China
Published: 2023-09-25 doi: 10.19666/j.rlfd.202212233
Outline
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With the increasing penetration of new energy in new power system, the influence of the uncertainty of wind power output and the correlation with load on the system operation is increasingly prominent. Thus, the conventional transformer risk assessment can no longer meet the demand. Based on Copula model and Susa model, a joint probability assessment method of transformer operation risk considering wind power and load correlation is proposed. Monte Carlo method is used to calculate each risk index value and evaluate transformer operation risk. The research results show that, the conventional transformer evaluation system that does not consider the wind-load correlation will lead to a low overall risk assessment result, with the maximum error of the index up to 55.02%. Also, with the increase of wind-load correlation, the risk of thermal defects of the transformer is increasing. The research conclusions can assist to improve the accuracy of the operation risk level assessment of new power system transformers, and provide a reference for the later transformer condition assessment and maintenance plan formulation.

source charge correlation  /  wind power-load correlation  /  transformer  /  Copula function  /  Monte Carlo method
Yan GAN, Jingxuan HE, Jianming ZOU, Hualin LYU, Zhiye DU, Hongwei CAI, Jingwen HUANG. Joint probabilistic risk assessment of wind power transformer connected to distribution networks considering source-load correlation[J]. Thermal Power Generation, 2023 , 52 (9) : 162 -170 . DOI: 10.19666/j.rlfd.202212233
Funding
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  • National Natural Science Foundation of China(51977152)
  • Science and Technology Project of Central China Branch of State Grid Corporation of China(5214AJ220017)
Appendix
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Year 2023 volume 52 Issue 9
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48
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Article Info
doi: 10.19666/j.rlfd.202212233
  • Online Date：2026-01-26
  • Published：2023-09-25
Article Data
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History
  • Revised：2022-12-13
Funding
National Natural Science Foundation of China(51977152)
Science and Technology Project of Central China Branch of State Grid Corporation of China(5214AJ220017)
Affiliations
    1.Central China Branch of State Grid Corporation, Wuhan 730074, China
    2.School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Wuhan University, Wuhan 730072, China
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https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/rlfd/EN/10.19666/j.rlfd.202212233
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
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小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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