Against the dual backdrop of urgent global climate governance and low-carbon transformation demands of the coal-fired power industry, carbon capture and storage (CCS) is widely recognized as a critical pathway to deep emission reduction in the power system. However, the high cost of CCS technology has severely hindered its large-scale promotion. To address this cost optimization challenge, this study aims to systematically explore the cost-driven mechanisms of the full-chain CCS system, identify key influencing factors, and propose a targeted cost-reduction paradigm, providing theoretical and practical support for the scientific deployment and commercialization of CCS in coal-fired power plants.

This study adopted the ITEAM-CCUS quantitative evaluation model, covering the full-chain CCS and integrating three core modules: geological carbon storage assessment, techno-economic analysis, and source-sink matching optimization. A systematic multi-parameter sensitivity analysis was conducted based on a sample of 165 domestic coal-fired power plants. These samples were selected to represent different regional distributions, unit capacities, and operational conditions, ensuring the generalizability and reliability of the research results. The analysis focused on key technical, economic, and geological parameters, such as absorbent regeneration heat consumption, coal price, plant utilization hours, electricity price, transportation distance, and reservoir properties.

The study revealed that the average levelized cost of the full-chain CCS is 303 yuan per ton of CO₂. Among the four chains, the capture and compression stages account for over 80% of the total cost, emerging as the primary focus for cost reduction. Specifically, capture cost is most significantly influenced by absorbent regeneration heat consumption, coal price, and plant utilization hours, and reducing regeneration heat consumption through technological innovation or improving plant operational efficiency can effectively lower capture costs. Compression cost shows a strong correlation with electricity price. Pipeline transportation cost is constrained by transportation distance and economies of scale. Storage cost is extremely sensitive to geological parameters such as reservoir’s permeability coefficient, thickness, and depth-reservoirs with higher permeability, greater thickness, and moderate depth are more conducive to reducing drilling, injection, and monitoring costs.

Based on the quantitative findings, this study proposes a systematic “scale-geology-energy efficiency synergy” cost-reduction paradigm. The specific pathways include technological innovation for low-energy consumption in the capture stage, large-scale infrastructure sharing across the full-chain CCS, refined operation and management of the CCS system, and policy incentives. This research clarifies CCS cost structures and driving factors, providing a feasible framework for governments, enterprises, and research institutions. It offers important theoretical and practical reference for promoting large-scale, commercial CCS application in coal-fired power plants, advancing power system decarbonization, and supporting global climate governance.