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Feature Condition Mining and Prior Probability Guidance Based Model Calibration Methodology for HVAC System
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Jianing He, Jie Lu, Yang Zhao
Journal of Refrigeration | 2025, 46(5) : 115 - 123
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Journal of Refrigeration | 2025, 46(5): 115-123
Feature Condition Mining and Prior Probability Guidance Based Model Calibration Methodology for HVAC System
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Jianing He, Jie Lu, Yang Zhao
Affiliations
  • Institute of Refrigeration and Cryogenics, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310027, China
Published: 2025-10-16 doi: 10.12465/j.issn.0253-4339.2025.05.115
Outline
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The high redundancy of the measured data from heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems significantly reduces the computational efficiency of model calibration. To address this challenge, a model calibration method based on mining feature operating conditions and a priori probability guidance was introduced in this study. Correlation analysis was conducted on the operational data for mining feature operating conditions. Feature variables related to HVAC system operation were selected, and a grid sampling technique based on these characteristic variables was employed to obtain representative operating conditions, enhancing the efficiency of the model calculations. Additionally, a prior probability model was established for the parameters to be calibrated during the model calibration process. A priori interval estimation was then performed, and the objective function was improved based on the prior probability to guide the model towards faster convergence. The proposed method was validated using a one-month operational dataset from a cooling plant in an industrial building located in Wuhan, China. The results indicated that the proposed method achieved significant improvements in performance metrics. Specifically, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and cross-validated root mean square error (CV-RMSE) were reduced by 16.0% and 12.0%, respectively, compared to the K-means clustering-based method, and by 20.9% and 15.2%, respectively, compared to the baseline data-based method. Furthermore, the normalized mean bias error (NMBE) was closer to zero, and the coefficient of determination (R2) increased by 4.7% and 8.5%, respectively, compared to the two aforementioned methods. Additionally, our method enhanced the computational efficiency by approximately 39.3%. This method provides technical guidance and data support for achieving an efficient and accurate modeling of HVAC systems.

HVAC system  /  chiller modeling  /  model calibration  /  feature condition  /  particle swarm algorithm
Jianing He, Jie Lu, Yang Zhao. Feature Condition Mining and Prior Probability Guidance Based Model Calibration Methodology for HVAC System[J]. Journal of Refrigeration, 2025 , 46 (5) : 115 -123 . DOI: 10.12465/j.issn.0253-4339.2025.05.115
  • National Natural Science Foundation of China(52161135202)
Year 2025 volume 46 Issue 5
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Article Info
doi: 10.12465/j.issn.0253-4339.2025.05.115
  • Receive Date:2024-04-23
  • Online Date:2026-03-13
  • Published:2025-10-16
Article Data
Affiliations
History
  • Received:2024-04-23
  • Revised:2024-07-13
  • Accepted:2024-08-30
Funding
National Natural Science Foundation of China(52161135202)
Affiliations
    Institute of Refrigeration and Cryogenics, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310027, China

Corresponding:

Zhao Yang, male, tenured associate professor, College of Energy Engineering, Zhejiang University, 86-18814803300, E-mail: . Research fields: artificial intelligence-based building energy systems, fault detection and diagnosis.
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小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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