To investigate the latent classes, transition patterns and influencing factors of bullying victimization among rural junior high school students in Guangxi, so as to provide a theoretical basis for prevention and intervention strategies of school bulling.

In May 2024 (T1), 1 667 students from three rural junior high schools in Guigang and Qinzhou of Guangxi were selected by using convenience cluster sampling to complete the Delaware Bullying Victimization Scale-Student (DBVS-S), Childhood Trauma Questionnaire, School Connectedness Scale and Brief Resilience Scale. In May 2025 (T2), the DBVS-S was readministered. Latent transition analysis was employed to identify the best latent class model of bullying victimization at two time points and to examine the stability and transition characteristics of victimization types. Multinomial Logistic regression was further applied to examine the predictive effects of childhood trauma, psychological resilience, and school connectedness on transitions between bullying victimization categories.

Two distinct patterns of bullying victimization among rural junior high school students were identified at both time points: a low victimization group (91.8% at T1, 93.5% at T2) and a traditional victimization group(high scores in the dimensions of verbal, physical and relational bullying)(8.2% at T1, 6.5% at T2). The low victimization group showed a stability probability of 95.7%, while 59.1% of the traditional victimization group transitioned to the low victimization group. Using the subjects remaining in the original group as a reference, factors associated with increased likelihood of transitioning to or remaining in the traditional victimization group included being male (OR=2.05), emotional abuse (OR=1.21), and physical neglect (OR=1.11)(all P < 0.05). In contrast, psychological resilience and school connectedness were associated with reduced probability of the transition victimization group (OR=0.88, 0.94)(both P < 0.05). Additionally, emotional abuse decreased the probability of transitioning back to low victimization (OR=0.88), whereas psychological resilience increased the probability of students transitioning to the low bulling victim group (OR=1.09) (both P < 0.05).

Group heterageneity is evident in the school bullying victimization among rural junior high school students in Guangxi, and childhood trauma, psychological resilience and school connectedness are important predictors of the transformation of school bullying victim categories.