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Study on the evolutionary characteristics and driving mechanisms of China's carbon emissions from a consumption-based perspective
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Wen-qing LI1, Guo-hua HE1, *, Qing-hai YANG2, Lü LIN3, Zeng-min YAN2, Chan XIAO4, Lü-liu LIU4
China Environmental Science | 2026, 46(3) : 1682 - 1693
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China Environmental Science | 2026, 46(3): 1682-1693
• Carbon Emission Control •
Study on the evolutionary characteristics and driving mechanisms of China's carbon emissions from a consumption-based perspective
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Wen-qing LI1, Guo-hua HE1, *, Qing-hai YANG2, Lü LIN3, Zeng-min YAN2, Chan XIAO4, Lü-liu LIU4
Affiliations
  • 1.State Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
  • 2.Petro China Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development, Beijing 100083, China
  • 3.School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (Beijing), Beijing 102249, China
  • 4.National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China
Published: 2026-03-20
Outline
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This study adopts a consumption-based perspective and, drawing on long time-series input-output data from 189economies around the world, calculates the scale embodied carbon transfers in China (referring specifically to China's mainland and excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) from 1997 to 2021. It identifies the characteristics of consumption-based carbon emissions of eight industries: agriculture; mining and quarrying; light industries; heavy industries; machinery and equipment manufacturing; electricity, gas, and water supply; other industries; and living and tertiary industries. Furthermore, it analyzes the key drivers of changes in consumption-based carbon emissions across different periods. The findings reveal that from 1997 to 2021, China consistently remained a net exporter of embodied carbon emissions, with light industries, heavy industries, and machinery and equipment manufacturing serving as the main sources of embodied carbon exports. The United States, Japan, and China's Hong Kong were the main destinations of these exports. In 2021, China's consumption-based carbon emissions totaled 10,156million tons, 1,289million tons lower than its production-based emissions, indicating that under the consumption-based perspective, China's carbon emission responsibility is 11.26% lower than that under the production-based perspective. In terms of driving factors, the increase in consumption scale was the main factor driving the growth of China's consumption-based carbon emissions from 1997 to 2021, with a contribution rate of 159.31%. Changes in population size, improvements in energy utilization efficiency, and adjustments in the energy structure contributed 11.04%, -63.40%, and -6.96%, respectively, to changes in consumption-based carbon emissions. Based on these results, the study discusses the unfairness of assigning carbon emission responsibility under the production-based perspective, highlights key areas of focus for China's carbon emission reduction efforts, and demonstrates the reliability of the findings.

international trade  /  carbon emissions  /  input-output analysis  /  evolutionary characteristics  /  driving mechanisms  /  China
李雯晴, 何国华, 杨清海, 林绿, 严增民, 肖潺, 刘绿柳. 消费端视角下中国碳排放演变特征与驱动机制研究. 中国环境科学, 2026 , 46 (3) : 1682 -1693 .
Wen-qing LI, Guo-hua HE, Qing-hai YANG, Lü LIN, Zeng-min YAN, Chan XIAO, Lü-liu LIU. Study on the evolutionary characteristics and driving mechanisms of China's carbon emissions from a consumption-based perspective[J]. China Environmental Science, 2026 , 46 (3) : 1682 -1693 .
Year 2026 volume 46 Issue 3
78
18
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Article Info
  • Receive Date:2025-07-23
  • Online Date:2026-10-08
  • Published:2026-03-20
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  • Received:2025-07-23
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Affiliations
    1.State Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
    2.Petro China Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development, Beijing 100083, China
    3.School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (Beijing), Beijing 102249, China
    4.National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)
属
Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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