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Policy-driven spatiotemporal difference and dominant factors evolution of O3 and PM2.5 compound pollution in Chinese cities
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Xiang-xue ZHANG1, Cheng-dong XU2, 3, *, Chang-xiu CHENG4, Shao-jie KONG5, Jie YU1
China Environmental Science | 2026, 46(3) : 1216 - 1228
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China Environmental Science | 2026, 46(3): 1216-1228
• Ozone Pollution Control •
Policy-driven spatiotemporal difference and dominant factors evolution of O3 and PM2.5 compound pollution in Chinese cities
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Xiang-xue ZHANG1, Cheng-dong XU2, 3, *, Chang-xiu CHENG4, Shao-jie KONG5, Jie YU1
Affiliations
  • 1.School of Geography, Geomatics and Planning, Jiangsu Normal University, Xuzhou 221116, China
  • 2.State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
  • 3.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • 4.Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
  • 5.School of Public Administration and Policy, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
Published: 2026-03-20
Outline
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To evaluate the impact of air pollution prevention and control policies on the spatiotemporal evolution of Ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5), this study analyzed the spatiotemporal stratified heterogeneity of O3 and PM2.5 pollution across 331 Chinese cities from 2014 to 2024 using a Bayesian spatiotemporal hierarchical model. The GeoDetector model was further employed to quantify the determinant power and interactive effects of meteorological, socioeconomic, and other pollutant factors on summer O3 and winter PM2.5 pollution during the implementation of three key policies: the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (2014~2017), the Blue Sky Defense Action Plan (2018~2020), and a circular on further Promoting the Nationwide Battle to Prevent and Control Pollution (2021~2024). The results indicate that O3 concentration exhibited a trend of initial rapid growth followed by a slower rate, with hotspots mainly distributed in North China and the Yangtze River Delta (YRD). Conversely, PM2.5 concentration continuously decreased, and high-value areas shrank and concentrated in North China, the YRD, and the Chengdu-Chongqing region. A positive correlation between O3 and PM2.5 was frequently observed in the southern and northeastern humid regions, whereas a negative correlation prevailed in the northwestern semi-arid areas. Although the dominant factors for O3 and PM2.5 evolved across policy stages, the determinant power of the interactions among different factors were consistently stronger than that of individual factors. Specifically, from 2014 to 2017, O3 was mainly affected by maximum temperature (Geo_q=0.24), industrial output (Geo_q=0.22), and PM10 (Geo_q = 0.60); PM2.5 was primarily affected by maximum temperature (Geo_q = 0.41), population density (Geo_q= 0.40), and PM10 (Geo_q = 0.88). From 2018 to 2020, the dominant factors for O3 shifted to precipitation, population density, and PM10, while those for PM2.5 shifted to average temperature, population density, and PM10. From 2021 to 2024, the dominant factors for both shifted toward average temperature, population density, and PM10, albeit with significant differences in their determinant power. This research reveals the dynamic evolution of the spatiotemporal patterns of O3 and PM2.5 pollution driven by policies implementation, emphasizing the dominant role of multi-factor interactions in the composite pollution formation process. The findings provide a crucial scientific basis for formulating regionalized and phased synergistic control strategies for O3 and PM2.5.

policy evolution  /  ozone  /  PM2.5  /  spatiotemporal heterogeneity  /  dominant factors  /  coordinated management
张湘雪, 徐成东, 程昌秀, 孔少杰, 余杰. 政策驱动下中国城市O3与PM2.5复合污染的时空分异及主导因素演变. 中国环境科学, 2026 , 46 (3) : 1216 -1228 .
Xiang-xue ZHANG, Cheng-dong XU, Chang-xiu CHENG, Shao-jie KONG, Jie YU. Policy-driven spatiotemporal difference and dominant factors evolution of O3 and PM2.5 compound pollution in Chinese cities[J]. China Environmental Science, 2026 , 46 (3) : 1216 -1228 .
Year 2026 volume 46 Issue 3
148
27
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Article Info
  • Receive Date:2025-08-03
  • Online Date:2026-10-08
  • Published:2026-03-20
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  • Received:2025-08-03
Funding
Affiliations
    1.School of Geography, Geomatics and Planning, Jiangsu Normal University, Xuzhou 221116, China
    2.State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    3.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    4.Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    5.School of Public Administration and Policy, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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