Analyzed the changes in vegetation cover (FVC) in the arid and semi-arid regions of northern China from 2000 to 2023, the impacts of FVC changes on ecosystem services were evaluated, and the impact thresholds were identified. The results showed that the FVC in these regions was characterized by a spatial pattern of being low in the west and high in the east, and low in the north and high in the south. Areas with increasing FVC accounted for 40.01% of the total study area. Overall ecosystem services were observed to decrease gradually from south to north, with high-value areas mainly distributed in southern Gansu Province and northwestern Xinjiang, while low-value areas were concentrated in central and western Inner Mongolia and northern Ningxia. The overall trend of ecosystem services was found to be increasing, with 85.01% of the area showing an upward trend. The FVC level was positively correlated with carbon fixation, soil conservation, and water production services, with significantly positive correlation areas accounting for 54.56%, 7.9%, and 11.43%, respectively. The increase in FVC was found to promote the comprehensive ecosystem services index (CIES) from 0.09 to 0.23. The FVC impact threshold in forest and farmland areas was not significant, and the positive effect of increasing FVC tended to weaken when grassland vegetation coverage reached 0.87.