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Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of agricultural water use efficiency in China under decoupling constraints based on machine learning
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Yi-chen CHEN1, Hui-xin CHEN2, Jun-qing HE3, Run-xiang NI4, Wen-meng YU4, *
China Environmental Science | 2025, 45(12) : 7030 - 7043
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China Environmental Science | 2025, 45(12): 7030-7043
• Environmental Impact Assessment and Management •
Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of agricultural water use efficiency in China under decoupling constraints based on machine learning
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Yi-chen CHEN1, Hui-xin CHEN2, Jun-qing HE3, Run-xiang NI4, Wen-meng YU4, *
Affiliations
  • 1.Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350108, China
  • 2.National Academy for Mayors of China, Beijing 100029, China
  • 3.Renmin University of China, Beijing 100101, China
  • 4.Rural Energy and Environment Agency, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100125, China
Published: 2025-12-20
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Using panel data for 31 provinces from 2007 to 2022, this study applied the super-efficiency Slack-Based Measure (SBM) model to measure agricultural water use efficiency under the constraint of decoupling economic growth from water resource consumption. Spatial dynamics were assessed using Moran's I index in ArcGIS, while the Random Forest model was employed to identify key influencing factors and their nonlinear effects. The results showed that China's agricultural water use efficiency exhibited a fluctuating yet overall upward trend, with a spatial distribution pattern characterized by "higher in the east and south, lower in the west and north." The overall pattern was found to demonstrate significant spatial autocorrelation, with spatial agglomeration increasingly strengthened. At the local scale, a clear southeast-northwest differentiation was observed, where hotspots expanded toward the west and south, and cold spots shifted from the north toward the northeast. Economic development level and water resource endowment were identified as having greater impacts on agricultural water use efficiency than technological investment and cropping structure. Specifically, the effects of economic development, technological progress, and capital investment followed a stepwise upward pattern, whereas the influence of water resource endowment displayed a "decline-increase-stabilization" trajectory. Furthermore, provinces dominated by rice and maize cultivation were found to have greater potential for efficiency improvement than those dominated by wheat cultivation. Policy recommendations were proposed, including the promotion of smart irrigation in high-efficiency regions, the enhancement of water-saving infrastructure and optimization of cropping patterns in low-efficiency regions, the sharing of best practices in hotspot areas, and the strengthening of governance and structural adjustment in coldspot regions.

agricultural water use  /  decoupling  /  super-efficiency SBM  /  spatiotemporal evolution  /  random forest
陈逸琛, 陈惠鑫, 何俊卿, 倪润祥, 余文梦. 基于机器学习的脱钩约束下中国省际农业用水效率时空演变及影响因素. 中国环境科学, 2025 , 45 (12) : 7030 -7043 .
Yi-chen CHEN, Hui-xin CHEN, Jun-qing HE, Run-xiang NI, Wen-meng YU. Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of agricultural water use efficiency in China under decoupling constraints based on machine learning[J]. China Environmental Science, 2025 , 45 (12) : 7030 -7043 .
Year 2025 volume 45 Issue 12
47
12
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Article Info
  • Receive Date:2025-05-20
  • Online Date:2026-10-08
  • Published:2025-12-20
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  • Received:2025-05-20
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Affiliations
    1.Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350108, China
    2.National Academy for Mayors of China, Beijing 100029, China
    3.Renmin University of China, Beijing 100101, China
    4.Rural Energy and Environment Agency, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100125, China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)
属
Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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