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Source apportionment and uncertainty analysis of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon risks in Beijing's surface dust using coupled PMF-HHRA modeling
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Yu MEN1, Yi-di WANG1, *, Yun-qi WANG1, Long-long WANG2, Bing GAO3
China Environmental Science | 2025, 45(11) : 6398 - 6410
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China Environmental Science | 2025, 45(11): 6398-6410
• Environmental Toxicology and Environmental Health •
Source apportionment and uncertainty analysis of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon risks in Beijing's surface dust using coupled PMF-HHRA modeling
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Yu MEN1, Yi-di WANG1, *, Yun-qi WANG1, Long-long WANG2, Bing GAO3
Affiliations
  • 1.School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
  • 2.College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
  • 3.State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Environmental Pollutant Metrology and Reference Materials, Institute of Environmental Reference Materials, Environmental Development Center, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Beijing 100029, China
Published: 2025-11-20
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In the present study, a comprehensive investigation of PAHs in surface dust from Beijing was conducted through the integration of the Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) model, Health Risk Assessment (HHRA) model, Monte Carlo simulation, and bootstrap uncertainty analysis. This integrated approach enabled a systematic analysis of the occurrence characteristics, health risks, and primary risk sources of 16 priority PAHs, while simultaneously quantifying uncertainties inherent in both risk assessment and source apportionment processes. Results indicated that the total concentrations of PAHs in Beijing’s surface dust ranged from 2.33 to 19.22μg/g, with high-ring PAHs being the dominant component (mean concentration: 6.43μg/g). Specifically, traffic-dominated zones within core urban areas exhibited the highest PAH levels (13.39μg/g), whereas ecological zones displayed the lowest concentrations (5.24μg/g). Probabilistic analysis revealed that the probability of moderate carcinogenic risk associated with PAH exposure reached 90.02% for adults and 94.97% for children, respectively. Children were found to be more susceptible to PAH-related health risks via the hand-to-mouth ingestion pathway, whereas adults faced greater vulnerability through dermal contact. Key driving factors influencing PAH exposure risks included duration of exposure and skin contact area. Source apportionment results identified three primary contributors to PAHs in surface dust: vehicle exhaust emissions (37.4%), non-combustion vehicle-related emissions (26.6%), and biomass/coal combustion (33.8%). Notably, although biomass/coal combustion accounted for 33.84% of the total PAH concentrations, its contribution to associated health risks was only approximately 15%. This observation highlights a significant discrepancy between concentration-based and risk-based source apportionment outcomes. Collectively, these findings provide valuable scientific insights to support the development of targeted pollution control measures for PAHs in Beijing.

surface dust  /  polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs)  /  health risk assessment  /  source apportionment  /  uncertainty analysis
门誉, 王依滴, 王云琦, 王龙龙, 高冰. 基于PMF-HHRA模型耦合的北京市地表灰尘多环芳烃风险来源解析及不确定性分析. 中国环境科学, 2025 , 45 (11) : 6398 -6410 .
Yu MEN, Yi-di WANG, Yun-qi WANG, Long-long WANG, Bing GAO. Source apportionment and uncertainty analysis of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon risks in Beijing's surface dust using coupled PMF-HHRA modeling[J]. China Environmental Science, 2025 , 45 (11) : 6398 -6410 .
Year 2025 volume 45 Issue 11
68
15
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  • Receive Date:2025-03-20
  • Online Date:2026-10-08
  • Published:2025-11-20
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  • Received:2025-03-20
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Affiliations
    1.School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
    2.College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
    3.State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Environmental Pollutant Metrology and Reference Materials, Institute of Environmental Reference Materials, Environmental Development Center, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Beijing 100029, China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
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属
Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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