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Accurate exposure modeling and health risks of heavy metals in mainstream smoke of best-selling cigarettes: A case study in Hubei Province
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Fei LI1, Jin-yuan GUO1, Wen-zhuo DENG1, Mian WU1, Rui-zhi ZHANG2, Chao-yang LIU1, Jing-dong ZHANG1, *
China Environmental Science | 2025, 45(11) : 6411 - 6422
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China Environmental Science | 2025, 45(11): 6411-6422
• Environmental Toxicology and Environmental Health •
Accurate exposure modeling and health risks of heavy metals in mainstream smoke of best-selling cigarettes: A case study in Hubei Province
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Fei LI1, Jin-yuan GUO1, Wen-zhuo DENG1, Mian WU1, Rui-zhi ZHANG2, Chao-yang LIU1, Jing-dong ZHANG1, *
Affiliations
  • 1.Research Center for Environment and Health, School of Information Engineering, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan 430073, China
  • 2.College of Textile and Clothing, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017
Published: 2025-11-20
Outline
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Heavy metals in mainstream cigarette smoke can pose risks to smokers and other exposed populations. Although international standards have released to control of hazardous substances in tobacco products, no recognized standard currently exists for quantitative management of heavy metals in cigarettes. The scientific and precise exposure modeling and health risk assessment of heavy metals in mainstream smoke from best-selling cigarettes could provide theoretical support for developing targeted quantitative control strategies on both government and smoker scales. The basic levels of arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), and lead (Pb) in the 15best-selling brands of cigarettes in Hubei Province were investigated, and a comparative analysis of the content in different cigarette types was conducted. Further, the human respiratory tract model was introduced to calculate the deposition rates of particulate matter of different sizes in mainstream smoke, and then the deposition doses in each part of the human respiratory tract were estimated. Finally, integratedly using inhalation exposure feature of mainstream smoke, the regional exposure parameters and triangular fuzzy numbers, an optimized health risk assessment model was established and carried out. The results showed that the mean values and ranges of As, Cd, and Pb in mainstream smoke were as follows: Cd (1.95mg/kg, 0.623~2.81mg/kg), As (1.33mg/kg, 0.172~2.88mg/kg) and Pb (1.13mg/kg, 0.413~1.65mg/kg). PM2.5 accounted for 75%~85% of the particulate matter released from mainstream smoke, and the deposition rates in respiratory tract after fuzzy number operation were [27.48%, 29.19%] for PM2.5and [28.50%, 30.46%] for PM5. The carcinogenic risk of As, Cd, and Pb in mainstream smoke was ranked as follows: Cd (Ⅱ-Ⅴ) > As (Ⅱ-Ⅳ) > Pb (Ⅰ), hence As and Cd were identified as the priority heavy metals for control. Based on the annual mortality rates attributed to tobacco consumption, the standard value of Class Ⅱ risk (1×10-5) was chosen as the risk control value for daily smokers. And according to the inverse calculation of the total exposure of mainstream smoke, the daily smoking amount based on this survey should be controlled at 3~4 cigarettes for thick cigarettes and menthol cigarettes, and 1~2 cigarettes for thin cigarettes. Advise all types of smokers to quit smoking as soon as possible.

mainstream smoke  /  respiratory deposit  /  exposure simulation  /  risk control  /  best-selling cigarette
李飞, 郭锦媛, 邓文倬, 吴冕, 张睿智, 刘朝阳, 张敬东. 畅销香烟主烟气流中重金属的精准暴露模拟与健康风险研究——以湖北省烟民为例. 中国环境科学, 2025 , 45 (11) : 6411 -6422 .
Fei LI, Jin-yuan GUO, Wen-zhuo DENG, Mian WU, Rui-zhi ZHANG, Chao-yang LIU, Jing-dong ZHANG. Accurate exposure modeling and health risks of heavy metals in mainstream smoke of best-selling cigarettes: A case study in Hubei Province[J]. China Environmental Science, 2025 , 45 (11) : 6411 -6422 .
Year 2025 volume 45 Issue 11
62
17
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  • Receive Date:2025-03-19
  • Online Date:2026-10-08
  • Published:2025-11-20
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  • Received:2025-03-19
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Affiliations
    1.Research Center for Environment and Health, School of Information Engineering, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan 430073, China
    2.College of Textile and Clothing, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)
属
Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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