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In order to investigate the impact of future climate change on high temperatures and ozone pollution, summer temperatures and O3 concentrations for different years in the 21st century were simulated using downscaling based on the CMIP6-WRF/Chem model. The results of the study indicated that, in comparison with 2014, the rate of temperature increased in typical cities within the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region would slow down by 2100 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario with peak warming rates of 0.29℃/decade, 0.46℃/decade, and 0.33℃/decade for Beijing, Tianjin, and Shijiazhuang respectively. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, warming accelerated markedly, with rates of 0.63℃/decade, 0.80℃/decade, and 0.72℃/decade for the three cities. Under both scenarios, daily average O3 concentrations and MDA8O3 concentrations in Beijing, Tianjin, and Shijiazhuang all exhibited increasing trends, with growth rates of 1.1μg/(m3·decade), 1.5μg/(m3·decade) and 0.9μg/(m3·decade), and 1.2μg/(m3·decade), 1.3μg/(m3·decade) and 1.1 μg/(m3·decade), respectively. However, the number of days exceeding O3 standards exhibited differing patterns, potentially linked to variations in O3 concentrations between hot and non-hot days. Non-hot-day O3 concentrations exhibited an increasing trend across all cities, with the largest increment occurring in Beijing under the SSP5-8.5 scenario by 2035, rising by 12.9μg/m3. Conversely, O3 concentrations decreased to varying degrees on high-temperature days, with the largest reduction occurring in Tianjin under the SSP2-4.5 scenario by 2100, decreasing by 13.9μg/m3. Under all scenarios, Tianjin's temperature penalty factor was lower than in 2014, indicating a consistent high-temperature suppression effect on O3 across scenarios and years. The influence of air temperature on O3 is non-linear, and relative humidity may modulate the relationship between high temperatures and O3 concentrations.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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