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This study analyzed agricultural carbon emissions in different cities of Henan Province from 2000 to 2021 by focusing on three indicator categories: land management, grain cultivation, and livestock farming. The analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution trends and patterns of agricultural carbon emissions was conducted using the local Moran I index. Additionally, a random forest model was utilized to determine the primary influencing factors and forecast agricultural carbon emissions in Henan Province across baseline, low-carbon, and high-carbon scenarios. The study findings indicated the following key points: agricultural carbon emissions in Henan Province exhibited a fluctuating trend from 2000 to 2021, reaching a peak of 58.4952million tons in 2006 before declining. By 2021, emissions had decreased by 40.60% compared to the peak year. The spatial distribution of agricultural carbon emissions across cities in the province followed a distinct pattern of being higher in the southeast and lower in the northwest. The primary driving factors positively influencing agricultural carbon emissions in Henan Province were the land plowing area, rural population, administrative area, and total agricultural machinery power. Conversely, the urbanization rate had a negative impact on emissions. Agricultural carbon emissions in Henan Province peaked in 2006 and are projected to continue decreasing from 2022 to 2030 under three scenarios. The anticipated reductions range from 22.4155~24.7073 million tons, 22.4567~24.8222 million tons, and 22.401~24.5974 million tons, respectively, compared to the peak level. These findings offer valuable insights for developing future strategies for reducing agricultural carbon emissions in different cities within Henan Province, thereby contributing to the attainment of the "dual carbon" objectives.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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